Money!

I've been putting off writing about the stock market, but I can't ignore it any longer. The economic news keeps getting worse and worse and the indexes keep going higher and higher. Something's got to give. I've been out of the market for several months, having exited before the major carnage started, but I've been reluctant to get back in the water, fearing there's sharks just below the surface.

It's possible that the market dropped too low and has corrected itself, but being a pessimist by nature, I am more prone to believe that the recent recovery is a "dead cat bounce". As far as I'm concerned, we have not yet seen the devastating effect all the layoffs are to have on the economy. Everyone is cutting spending. And that includes those lucky enough to have a job right now. They're scared #$!2^@# that they're next on the chopping block...and they probably are.

This sort of situation tends to be a catch-22. The more layoffs there are, the less spending there is. The less spending there is, the worse the economy gets. The worse the economy gets, the more layoffs there are.

I am going out on a not-so-long limb and declare that this thing will get much worse before it gets better. I know I'm not the only one predicting doom and gloom, but I have been posting, chatting, e-mailing and conversing about the emergence of third world countries and the possible economic collapse of the United States for almost 20 years now.

Having said that, I pray it doesn't turn out as bad as I have imagined it, for that would not bode well for the whole world and especially Canada, America's largest trading partner. One bright note is that the emergence of third world nations has provided a much needed diversification of trading partners. If an economic collapse of the U.S. had happened ten years ago, the entire planet might have become "the third world". Today, there's a few others to do business with.

One last thought, and remember, you heard it here first (at least if I am right), I see the American indexes dropping below their previous lows in the coming months. I'll join the market at that point because I expect slow and steady gains going forward for the foreseeable future. However, I'm not giving refunds if I'm wrong.